In a significant shift in global trade dynamics, the United States has overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in the first quarter of 2024, according to Reuters' analysis of official German statistics. The trade volume between Germany and the US reached 63 billion euros ($68 billion), while trade with China fell slightly behind at just under 60 billion euros.
This development marks a departure from 2023, when China maintained its position as Germany's primary trade partner for the eighth consecutive year, with trade volumes reaching 253 billion euros, narrowly edging out the US. However, the tide has turned in the first three months of 2024, with German exports to the US rising due to the robust American economy, while both exports to and imports from China have declined.
Structural factors also contribute to this shift, as China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods domestically, reducing its reliance on German imports. Additionally, German companies are increasingly opting for local production in China rather than exporting goods from Germany.
The US now accounts for around 10% of German goods exports, while China's share has fallen to less than 6%. This reorientation is partly driven by geopolitical considerations, as Germany seeks to reduce its exposure to China and strengthen ties with the US, its transatlantic partner.
However, the future trajectory of this trend remains uncertain, as it could be influenced by the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election in November.
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