According to the head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), current trends suggest that the United States is on track to overtake China as Germany’s primary trade partner by 2025, at the latest.
Preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office indicates that German exports and imports to China amounted to approximately 253 billion euros ($272 billion) last year, maintaining China’s position as Europe’s largest economy’s top trade partner for the eighth consecutive year, albeit marginally. However, with a trade volume of 252.3 billion euros, the United States is in close pursuit.
The growth in German exports to the United States has been a key factor driving this shift, with exports valued at nearly 158 billion euros last year, constituting around 10% of Germany’s total exports.
DIHK’s Volker Treier highlighted that there are currently no significant signs of increased demand for German products from China. Deliveries to China experienced a decline of nearly 9%, particularly in sectors such as automobiles and chemicals. Meanwhile, imports from China decreased by almost a fifth.
German leaders have cautioned against over-reliance on China and advocated for diversification of business away from what they perceive as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.”
Since 2015, the United States has been the primary export market for the German economy, with substantial direct investments made there.
Treier noted that the US economy is currently outperforming many other significant markets for the German economy, such as EU countries, attributing this to the strength and attractiveness of the US economy.
The evolving trade dynamics between Germany, the United States, and China underscore the importance of strategic trade partnerships and the need for businesses to adapt to changing global landscapes.