The future of U.S. tariff policy is under review as the Supreme Court prepares to consider whether recent trade duties imposed under emergency powers exceeded presidential authority.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that if the Court rules against the current tariff framework, the Treasury could be required to refund about half of the revenue collected to date. As of late August, businesses in the United States had paid more than $210 billion to cover the tariffs that lower courts have deemed unlawful.
The legal challenge stems from a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which ruled that imposing broad tariffs falls within the powers of Congress rather than the executive branch. The Trump administration has petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn that ruling, emphasizing that delaying a decision until mid-2026 could complicate trade operations and potentially impact $750 billion to $1 trillion in collected tariffs.
Officials have indicated that alternative legal mechanisms, such as measures under Section 232 investigations related to steel and aluminum, could still provide avenues for maintaining certain tariffs. However, Treasury leaders acknowledged that such steps might reduce the administration’s leverage in ongoing trade negotiations.
The Supreme Court’s decision, expected later this year, is likely to have significant implications for U.S. trade strategy, business costs, and global market stability.
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