Thailand is on track to export 8.2 million tonnes of rice this year, an increase from the previously forecasted 7.5 million tonnes. This surge is attributed to strong demand from key markets and a weakening baht, according to the Commerce Ministry.
The Director-General of the Foreign Trade Department noted that rice exports in the first half of the year reached 5.08 million tonnes, valued at 117.8 billion baht (US$ 3.3 billion), reflecting a 25.1% rise in volume and a 55.5% increase in value year-on-year.
“Rice importers are seeking to import rice for both consumption and stockpiling for food security,” he explained.
Competitive pricing of Thai rice is bolstered by India’s export restrictions and the baht’s depreciation to 36-37 per US dollar. On July 25, a meeting between the department and the Thai Rice Exporters Association reviewed the rice export outlook for the second half of the year. Continued demand from major markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia, aiming to counter inflation and drought impacts, emerged as a key positive factor.
The Philippines’ recent decision to reduce rice import taxes from 35% to 15%, effective from early August until 2028, further enhances the market for Thai exports. It is expected that the Philippines and Indonesia will increase their rice imports to up to 4.7 million tonnes and 3.6 to 4.3 million tonnes, respectively, this year, presenting significant opportunities for Thailand.
Additionally, in-season rice production entering the market in the fourth quarter is projected to rise compared to the same period last year, supported by increased rainfall as the El Niño weather phenomenon wanes. Consequently, Thai rice prices are declining, enhancing their competitiveness.
The Director-General forecasted that rice exports could reach 8.2 million tonnes this year, with a value of US$4.5 billion or approximately 162 billion baht, exceeding the earlier projection of 7.5 million tonnes.
However, several risk factors could impact Thai rice exports in the latter half of the year. These include the potential revision of India’s rice export restrictions, increased rice production in Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Cambodia, which could heighten global supply and price competition, and volatile shipping freight rates.
Despite these challenges, the Thai rice export outlook remains favorable. Exporters are committed to delivering substantial quantities of rice, particularly white rice, to primary markets within ASEAN, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, as well as Africa and the Middle East.
The department affirmed its readiness to collaborate closely with relevant government and private sector entities to promote and enhance rice exports.
Key activities for the remaining months include the Thailand Rice Convention (TRC) 2024, an international conference where global rice trade experts will exchange market information and engage in business negotiations. Mobile TRC roadshows are also planned to provide on-site market trend information to rice farmers, encouraging them to align their production with market demands.
The department also aims to strengthen relationships and expand the rice market in key regions such as South Africa, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, along with participating in several trade shows to promote Thai rice globally.
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