South Korea's export trajectory is poised to continue its upward trajectory, marking a fifth consecutive month of growth, predominantly propelled by chip shipments, according to a recent Reuters poll.
Analysts anticipate a modest 1.9% increase in exports for February compared to the same period last year. This follows an impressive 18.0% surge recorded in January, although slower growth is expected this month due to unfavorable calendar effects.
The Lunar New Year holiday period, which shifted to February from January this year, resulted in fewer working days, contributing to the anticipated slowdown in export growth.
Experts highlight the sustained momentum in semiconductor exports as a driving force behind South Korea's export performance. Additionally, there are positive indications of recovery in shipments to the greater China region, further bolstering optimism.
While overall exports faced challenges, particularly in non-semiconductor categories, chip sales continued to thrive. Semiconductor exports are forecasted to extend their gains for a fourth consecutive month.
Conversely, imports are expected to decline by 10.4% in February compared to the previous year, marking the 12th consecutive month of contraction.
Despite the expected downturn in imports, South Korea is likely to maintain a trade surplus, with the median forecast pointing to a surplus of $1.90 billion for February, compared to $0.33 billion in January.
South Korea, renowned for being the first major economy to report trade data each month, is set to release the official figures for February on Friday, March 1st at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
