The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced a positive adjustment to its forecast for Philippine rice imports, raising the estimate to 4.9 million metric tons for 2025. This increase of 300,000 metric tons from the September estimate highlights the resilience of the Philippine agricultural sector in adapting to changing market conditions and ensuring food security.
This revised forecast is an encouraging indicator for trade, as it reflects a strategic response to anticipated smaller domestic harvests. The USDA has adjusted its estimate for Philippine rice production to 12.3 million metric tons, down from 12.7 million metric tons previously projected. Last year, the Philippines produced approximately 20.06 million metric tons of unmilled rice, translating to around 13 million metric tons of milled rice.
In light of recent challenges, including the effects of weather phenomena such as El Niño and the potential onset of La Niña, the need for enhanced rice imports becomes even more crucial. The former Secretary of Agriculture emphasized that these imports will play a vital role in offsetting production fluctuations and supporting the local economy.
As of October 3, the Philippines has already imported 3.29 million metric tons of rice this year, showcasing the country’s commitment to maintaining a stable supply. To facilitate this, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. implemented Executive Order No. 62 in June, reducing the import tariff on rice from 35% to 15% until 2028. This proactive measure is designed to stabilize rice prices and foster a more robust agricultural trade environment.
Although rice prices have remained high, the Department of Agriculture remains optimistic that a downward trend may begin by mid-October, with the full effects of the tariff reduction expected to be felt by January. Current price monitors indicate a range of PHP 45 to PHP 55 per kilogram for imported well-milled rice, reflecting a decrease from the previous month.
Moreover, the USDA predicts an increase in global rice imports next year, driven by India’s recent decision to lift its ban on non-basmati white rice exports. This development is set to enhance global supply and potentially lead to lower prices, positively impacting trade across various markets in Africa and Asia.
This positive outlook not only highlights the Philippines’ adaptability in navigating agricultural challenges but also underscores the importance of trade in ensuring food security and economic growth.
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