In a surprising turn of events, German industrial orders experienced a significant upswing in December, marking the most substantial month-on-month increase in over three years. The surge, fueled by a remarkable influx of aircraft orders, was reported by the federal statistics office on Tuesday.
Orders soared by 8.9% compared to the previous month, after adjustments for seasonal and calendar factors, marking the largest uptick since June 2020. This development defied expectations in a Reuters poll, where analysts had anticipated orders to remain stagnant.
The category of "other vehicle construction," encompassing aircraft, ships, and trains, witnessed a remarkable surge of 110.9% in orders for the month, primarily attributed to plane orders. Additionally, significant orders in the manufacture of metal products (up by 18.0%) and electrical equipment (showing a surge of 38.7%) contributed positively to the overall outcome.
However, despite this positive momentum, concerns loom over the broader manufacturing sector, which continues to face challenges. The Ifo Institute highlighted the growing burden on the German economy due to the lack of orders, a sentiment echoed by economists despite the upbeat data.
Ralph Solveen, a senior economist at Commerzbank, cautioned that the impact of the unusually high number of big-ticket orders on production would be limited in the short term. When excluding these orders, the volume of orders actually experienced a decline of 2.2%, underscoring ongoing challenges faced by the German economy.
Notably, incoming orders dwindled in key sectors such as the automotive industry (-14.7%), mechanical engineering (-5.3%), and the chemical industry (-3.7%), according to the statistics office.
In a more stable three-month comparison spanning October to December 2023, industrial orders were marginally higher by 0.1% compared to the preceding three months.
Domestic orders saw a robust increase of 9.4% in December, while foreign orders also rose by 8.5%. Orders from the euro zone surged by 34.5%, contrasting with a 7.5% decline in orders from outside the euro zone.
Looking at the broader picture, industrial orders in 2023 witnessed a 5.9% decline when adjusted for calendar effects compared to the previous year.
The unexpected surge in German industrial orders in December offers a glimmer of hope amid ongoing economic challenges, albeit tempered by persistent concerns in key manufacturing sectors.
