China’s manufacturing activity is expected to continue its modest growth in November, marking the second consecutive month of expansion. Following a series of stimulus measures designed to bolster the world’s second-largest economy, the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is projected to rise to 50.2, slightly higher than October’s reading of 50.1. A PMI above 50 signals growth, indicating that China’s stimulus efforts are beginning to yield positive results for the manufacturing sector.
After months of struggling with weak demand and declining producer prices, recent government initiatives, including large-scale fiscal support and monetary easing, are showing signs of improving business sentiment. A notable surge in exports in October suggests that factories have increased production in anticipation of market shifts and future challenges.
Beyond manufacturing, the broader economy is also showing signs of recovery. Retail sales saw the largest growth since February, and a decrease in property sales declines suggests that the real estate sector may be stabilizing. Although industrial output growth slightly slowed last month, the overall economic outlook remains positive, supported by ongoing government measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand.
The projections from key economic institutions, including Bank of China and Nomura, reinforce the optimism surrounding China’s manufacturing outlook. However, challenges remain, such as falling industrial profits, highlighting the ongoing pressure on firms to maintain profitability in a fluctuating economic environment.
Looking forward, analysts anticipate additional policy measures to further stimulate consumption and help China meet its growth target of approximately 5% in 2025.
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