Indonesia has reported a trade surplus of $3.56 billion for April, exceeding expectations as the country experienced lower-than-anticipated imports, according to data released by the national statistics bureau on Wednesday.
A Reuters poll of economists had projected a surplus of $3.30 billion, while the March surplus was revised upward to $4.58 billion. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, has consistently recorded a merchandise trade surplus every month over the past four years. However, the surplus has been narrowing recently due to weaker export performance.
The resource-rich nation’s exports have been impacted by declining commodity prices and a slowdown in global trade. In April, exports increased by 1.72% from the previous year to $19.62 billion, falling short of the 4.57% growth anticipated by economists. Despite the lower-than-expected figures, this marks Indonesia’s first export growth in 11 months.
Coal exports, Indonesia's largest export commodity, fell by 19.26% year-on-year to $2.61 billion in April, influenced by decreasing global coal prices despite an increase in export volumes.
Imports in April rose by 4.62% to $16.06 billion, compared to an expected annual increase of 8.69%. The trade data supports the view of Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede, who predicts a continued, but moderate, decline in Indonesia’s trade surplus and a widening current account deficit this year.
Pardede noted that with subdued inflation expectations and a stable rupiah exchange rate, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to maintain the BI rate at 6.25% during its monetary policy review in May. The central bank had previously raised rates unexpectedly in April to bolster the rupiah after it hit four-year lows against the U.S. dollar.
Governor Perry Warjiyo indicated last week that further rate hikes are unlikely, given the stabilization of the currency and the return of capital inflows.
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