When supply chains began to fray in early 2020, the first signs weren’t always visible on supermarket shelves. For many manufacturers, the cracks showed up as missed deliveries, empty bins in the warehouse, and anxious calls from sub-contractors suddenly unable to ship components. Metal parts—everything from fasteners to specialized castings—were among the most ubiquitous and quietly essential building blocks that suddenly became scarce. For analysts aiming to map these disruptions in real time, ISIC 2590 (Manufacture of other fabricated metal products) provided a practical way in.
The process starts by identifying which firms, globally or in a specific region, are registered under ISIC 2590. This isn’t just about major producers; the vast majority are small- and medium-sized sub-contractors making parts for sectors as varied as automotive, appliances, machinery, and construction. By tracking business activity levels—production volumes, hours worked, shipment schedules—across this slice of the economy, it becomes possible to detect where slowdowns began and how quickly they spread.
But counting production stoppages alone doesn’t capture the full impact. The real story emerges when these data are overlaid with trade flows. National customs statistics and industry association reports can show changes in the volume and direction of imports and exports for ISIC 2590 goods. Were certain countries suddenly importing more metal components than before, or did long-standing suppliers drop out of the trade picture altogether? Shifts in trade flows can highlight both vulnerabilities—overdependence on a single source—and surprising resilience, as companies scramble to find new suppliers or build up inventories.
To create a clear analysis, it helps to build a simple template. Begin with a baseline: production and trade levels for ISIC 2590 firms in late 2019. Layer in data from early 2020, marking the onset of lockdowns, border closures, and localized outbreaks. Where stoppages are reported, connect the dots to downstream sectors—automotive assembly lines going idle, appliance factories halting runs, construction projects delayed for want of fasteners or frames. Combining timelines, analysts can pinpoint not just where the chain broke, but how ripple effects moved through the wider economy.
Naturally, the picture isn’t always complete. Some sub-contractors are informal, or operate in markets where official data is thin. In some cases, stoppages lasted only days; in others, the effects persisted for months as backlogs built up and inventories ran dry. And trade data, while invaluable, sometimes lags the real-world pace of change—meaning analysts have to supplement the numbers with interviews, news reports, or anecdotal evidence from buyers and suppliers.
Still, using ISIC 2590 as a focal point brings both structure and specificity to a period that was otherwise marked by uncertainty and confusion. By mapping not just the slowdowns, but the networks of trade and production that turned individual stoppages into global shortages, economists and policymakers can better understand where future risks lie—and, just as important, where supply chains quietly adapted and survived. The lessons from 2020 continue to resonate, not just for crisis management but for the ongoing project of building systems that bend rather than break when tested.