The US pork industry is thriving, with significant increases in both production and export volumes. As of early June 2024, the US hog inventory has reached 74.5 million head, marking a 1% increase from the previous year. This growth is largely driven by a 2% rise in the number of fattening pigs, despite a 3% reduction in the breeding herd. This dynamic shift reflects the industry's robust health and productivity.
Year-to-date figures show that pork production has hit 5.3 million tonnes, a 1.9% rise compared to the same period last year. This increase is attributed to higher productivity, with slaughter numbers rising by 2.3%. Looking ahead, total pork production for 2024 is projected to reach 12.8 million tonnes, representing a commendable 3.1% increase from the previous year.
One of the key factors supporting this growth is the sustained higher average carcass weights observed through May and June. Despite the typical seasonal summer decline in weight, reports indicate that strong pig prices and lower feed costs are encouraging producers to optimize weight gains. This trend underscores the industry's adaptability and resilience.
Price trends have been particularly favorable in 2024. Since the beginning of the year, US pig prices have consistently exceeded 2023 levels. In May, average live weight equivalent prices were up by 19.5% year-on-year, although they have since stabilized. The wholesale market has also shown a positive upward trend, driven by higher prices for various cuts such as bellies, loins, and ribs.
This advantageous pricing environment, coupled with decreased feed costs, has resulted in healthy profit margins for many producers. Positive returns have been reported across the industry, and strong demand in both domestic and international markets is expected to maintain price stability in the coming months.
On the global stage, US pork remains competitively priced, benefiting from lower feed costs and reduced shipping rates compared to other regions. Exports from January to May 2024 totaled 1.09 million tonnes, reflecting a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. Key export destinations include Mexico, South Korea, Australia, and Colombia, with notable growth in these markets.
While the US also experienced a 7.5% increase in pork imports year-to-date, the most significant supplier remains Canada, despite a slight decline in its share. Imports from the EU have risen, highlighting the global interconnectedness of the pork market.
Overall, the US pork industry is positioned for continued success, with expectations of a 6% increase in exports by the end of the year. This growth is driven by improving demand, particularly from Asia, and underscores the industry's ongoing strength and resilience.
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