Following a surprisingly robust harvest in the southern hemisphere, global shipments of perishable goods are expected to see a significant increase this year, according to new research from Drewry. The analyst forecasts a 1% growth in global reefer shipments across all commodities after two years of decline, driven primarily by strong citrus exports from South Africa.
“Favorable growing seasons have bolstered deciduous exports so far this year, and South Africa’s citrus season is set to deliver further growth with new orchards coming into production. Good growing conditions are expected to benefit exports of oranges, lemons, and grapefruits,” noted Drewry shipping analyst Malcolm Ramsay.
In New Zealand, despite a slow start for kiwis, the crop is anticipated to improve later in the year, leading to a significant increase in export volumes compared to last year’s disappointing performance. Additionally, key seaborne reefer commodities such as meat and bananas began the year with positive momentum, showing single-digit growth year-on-year.
Drewry projects a 3.6% growth in citrus shipments this year compared to last year, with exotic fruits growing just under 3%, meat shipments slightly below 1%, and banana shipments increasing by just over 0.5%.
“Building on the momentum from the first few months of the year, Drewry anticipates improvements in exports and a continued decline in reefer freight rates. This is expected to shape a positive outlook for 2024, with global seaborne reefer volumes set to increase by more than 1%,” Ramsay added.
However, the World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has provided a nuanced view, indicating that global citrus production may contract by 0.7% to a total of 24.3 million tonnes. Despite this, exports are projected to grow by 7.45% compared to 2023, reaching 4.15 million tonnes.
The WCO noted varying trends among specific citrus fruits. Orange production is expected to decline by 4% to 15.5 million tonnes, while lemon and grapefruit production are forecast to grow by around 11% to 3.2 million tonnes and 532,000 tonnes, respectively.
There are concerns about demand in importing markets. The Citrus Growers Association of South Africa has warned of potential oversupply of lemons in Europe in the coming month, with possible undersupply later in the season. As of now, 8 million cartons of lemons have been shipped from South Africa, compared to 11.1 million at the same point in 2023, with a full-year forecast of 36.8 million cartons versus 35.6 million last year.
New market opportunities are also emerging. In March, a new bilateral protocol with Vietnam opened the Asian market to South African orange exports. This development may encourage container lines to offer new routes for South African exporters, as currently, no direct South Africa-Asia service includes a call in Vietnam, based on The Loadstar’s analysis of the eeSea liner database.
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